Cam Newton sports the throwback Charlotte Hornets cap during a recent Bobcats game…can the Panthers take the next step?
What NFL Football team will win it all in 2013?
Desmond Johnson
Yeah, yeah, yeah. I didn’t do a NFL Football preview last year. I’ll admit, I was still stinging from the 2010 fiasco in Carolina (I don’t hate Jimmy Clausen. I don’t really). I had picked the Panthers to make it to the NFC Championship game against the Cowboys. I picked the Cowboys to win the Super Bowl….becoming the first team to win the game in their home stadium. I picked the Panthers to win the NFC South. None of those things occurred.
Fresh out of a stint in mental rehab, and reenergized by the emergence of Mr. Cam Newton in Carolina, I decided to wheel out the Preview again. And yes, “A look into the mind of a Panther fan” will make its annual return in September. I won’t abandon you again NFL fan. I promise.
2011 was quite a season for NFL Football fans. Who saw San Francisco going 13-3? Who saw the Packers going 15-1? Who the hell saw the 9-7 NY Giants winning the Super Bowl by beating Brady and the Patriots on a last minute touchdown….again? What does 2012 have in store? First things first, let’s break down each division. All 32 teams. You ready for some NFL football?
AFC
** denotes Division winner
* denotes playoffs
AFC East
Predicted 2012 record
New England Patriots: 12-4 **
NY Jets: 9-7
Buffalo Bills 8-8
Miami Dolphins 5-11
I just don’t see anyone in the division dethroning the Pats. They are too good and everyone returns on offense, including All World QB Tom Brady and TE Rob Gronkowski. The Jets could provide some intrigue but ask yourself this…who is the #2 receiver on the Jets roster? Heard of Chaz Shillings before? Yeah, me either. But the Sanchez/Tebow battle may make it worthwhile to hold onto that NFL Sunday Ticket subscription. The Bills went out and spent an insane amount of money on free agents to revamp the defense, lead by FA DE Mario Williams. The team seemed to sputter when RB Fred Jackson was lost for the year with a broken leg in 2011. He’s back healthy. Buffalo could be a surprise team to watch. The Dolphins are in a bit of a rebuild mode (something they seem have been in since Dan Marino retired. Too soon?) Watch for RB Reggie Bush to have another 1000 yard breakout season. With the Chad Johnson situation behind them can the Dolphins concentrate on winning NFL games? Or are the Dolphins only concerned with “Hard Knocks” this year?
AFC West
Predicted 2012 record
Kansas City Chiefs: 10-6**
Oakland Raiders: 9-7*
Denver Broncos: 9-7*
San Diego Chargers: 8-8
The AFC West will be one of the most competitive divisions in the NFL this year. All four teams stand a chance to win the division. I’m going with the Chiefs in a shocker. They’ve got plenty of players coming back from injury, led by RB Jamaal Charles. If QB Matt Cassell can have a decent season and successfully get the ball to his talented young playmakers, The Chiefs should win. Oakland, led by QB Carson Palmer will be in the hunt. If the Raiders can get through the division with a winning record, Oakland could be a surprise here. The main thing that pops out is “Why arent you picking the Broncos to win the division like everyone else on earth?” For starters, I haven’t seen Peyton Manning get hit yet. The back is a funny thing. They said just one operation on it and you’re never the same. Peyton has had 4 surgeries on his neck/back in over a year. I’m just not sure yet. But I think the running game, defense plus Manning is enough for a wildcard. And then there’s San Diego. I’m tired of hearing about how San Diego is one of the most talented teams in the NFL. When are they going to stop underachieving? I’m not willing to pick them again until they prove they belong. QB Phillip Rivers is considered a top ten QB in the league. Its time to start showing his worth right? San Diego could go 13-3, but I’m safer betting on .500.
AFC North
Predicted 2012 Record
Baltimore Ravens: 11-5**
Cincinnati Bengals: 9-7
Pittsburgh Steelers: 7-9
Cleveland Browns: 5-11
The AFC North put three teams into the NFL playoffs in 2011. This season however, the division will belong to the Ravens. In one would have to assume one of the last seasons of a storied career, LB Ray Lewis reported to camp 20 lbs lighter in an attempt to regain some speed and avoid injury. Ravens QB Joe Flacco also claims to be an elite QB and was a dropped pass in the AFC Championship game from playing in the Super Bowl. The offense should finally take off this year, led by RB Ray Rice and WR Torrey Smith. Many think that Cincy was a fluke last year. Not me. Another strong season from QB Andy Dalton and WR AJ Green, plus a nasty defense should be enough for Cincy to finish second in the division. What about Pittsburgh? I don’t trust the Steelers situation at RB with current starter Rashard Mendenhall out with injury. The Steelers defense is a year older, but they cut a lot of long time stalwarts in the off-season. Can the Steelers defy odds and win the division again? Probably not. The Browns may actually be one of the more exciting Offenses in the division (whaaaaaaa?) with new rookie QB Brandon Weeden and former Alabama RB Trent Richardson. Fun Fact….did you know that Cleveland actually had a top ten defense last year? But then again, it IS Cleveland we’re talking about here (apologies to my in-laws and family in Cleveland. Then again, you already know…..) Let’s move on shall we?
AFC South
Predicted 2012 record
Houston Texans 11-5**
Tennessee Titans 5-11
Jacksonville Jaguars 4-12
Indianapolis Colts 3-13
Introducing the worst division in NFL Football! Give them a hand, Ladies and Gents! Houston should have no problem going undefeated in the division, leading to back to back division titles for the first time in franchise history. Led by QB Matt Schabb and a running attack led by RB’s Arian Foster and Ben Tate the Texans are looking for a long playoff run this year. Meanwhile the rest of the division is somewhere between mediocre and straight trash. Tennessee is dealing with a potential QB controversy between Matt “No I’m not married to Elizabeth” Hasselbeck and 2nd yr QB Jake Locker. And although they went 9-7 last year, they draw the AFC East and the NFC North with many high powered offenses sprinkled in there. The Jaguars have got problems. BIG problems. No marquee QB, no WRs, a horrible offensive line, no defense. The Jaguars only have one asset, RB Maurice Jones-Drew who led the league in rushing last year…and is now holding out and hasn’t appeared at training camp as of this writing. Rookie WR Justin Blackmon is still unsigned as of this writing. If I were the Jaguars, I’d trade Jones-Drew now (is his value EVER going to be higher than now???) and get some bodies and/or draft picks in here. I also fully expect the Jaguars to hightail it to Los Angeles in the next few years. You read it here first. The Colts are….well, the Colts. As weird as it will look to have QB Andrew Luck in the backfield instead of Peyton Manning, how weird would it be if Luck has a better season than Manning? Colts need another draft and some free agent moves to be back in contention. But the beauty of the NFL is that it is the only professional sports league where you can go from last to first in one season.
NFC
NFC East
Predicted 2012 record
Dallas Cowboys: 10-6**
Philadelphia Eagles: 9-7*
N.Y. Giants 7-9
Washington Redskins: 5-11
This is the year for the Dallas Cowboys to make a long run. QB Tony Romo has been a top ten QB in the league for the past 5-6 years. Yes, he has a weird way of either winning or blowing a game in the final seconds. It’s infuriating and exhilarating at the same time. It also reminds us of a young Brett Farve. Farve needed a Defense in Green Bay to win though. The Cowboys drafted CB Morris Claiborne to tighten up their defensive backfield and the return of RB Demarco Murray should help. If WR Dez Bryant stays out of trouble and they avoid injuries along the way, the Cowboys will go deep this year. The Eagles are talking dynasty in Philly, but not so fast. Did you know the last season QB Michael Vick played a full 16 games was in….2000? Wow! Can they keep Vick in the game all season? The Eagles are loaded with talent, starting with RB LeSean “Shady” McCoy and WR Desean Jackson, armed with new multi year contracts. If the defense holds up, the Eagles could win the division. I’m not drinking the NY Giants Kool-Aid. QB Eli Manning has proven to be an “elite” QB. But he’s nothing if he’s not inconsistent. Can Eli put together two great seasons in a row? The defensive line had just as much to do with the success in 2011 as Eli did. The Giants did nothing to fix their defensive backfield and they lost RB Brandon “when I run it looks like my legs hurt” Jacobs and WR Mario Manningham…both to the San Francisco 49ers. We’ll get to them in a bit. Washington moved heaven and earth (and a boatload of draft picks) to draft Heisman Trophy winner QB Robert Griffin III with the hopes that he would be the next Cam Newton. The problem? RGIII doesn’t have two pro bowlers on his offensive line and two former 1000 yard rushers in his backfield. Washington did nothing to protect its investment in terms of its offensive line. Hopefully they keep RGIII upright long enough to win 4-5 games this year. Still a year or two away.
NFC North
Predicted 2012 record
Green Bay Packers: 12-4**
Detroit Lions: 10-6*
Chicago Bears: 9-7
Minnesota Vikings: 3-13
The NFC North still runs through QB Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. The key to beating the Packers is to either outscore them, or get them off their rhythm as the Giants did in the divisional round of the playoffs last season. The Packers had the worst defense in the league last year. Amazingly they finished 15-1 in the regular season with that defense. What happens if they get the defense to around the middle of the pack? Detroit will be nipping on the Pack’s heels. After a 5000 yard season, Matthew Stafford looks to lead a young Detroit team to back to back playoff appearances. Calvin “Megatron” Johnson inked the largest deal in NFL history (130+ million!!!!) in the off-season. If Detroit finds a RB they can trust and can keep DT Ndamukong Suh from killing innocent bystanders, they should make it to the playoffs again. The Bears are intriguing. People talk about the repairing of QB Jay Cutler and WR Brandon Marshall as if it guarantees the Bears a Super Bowl appearance. I don’t recall ANY receivers having breakout years in the windy confines of Solider Field in the past (Willie Gault?) so I’m not sure how this pairing vaulted the Bears to the top of one of the hardest divisions in the league. Plus the defense is older, led by LB Brian Urlacher and DE Julius Peppers. If the Bears are going to make a run, this may be the year to do it. The Vikings shouldn’t even suit up this year. Just kidding. But seriously, who is 2nd year QB Christian Ponder going to throw the ball to? Will Adrian Peterson return to his former Superman self after tearing his ACL and MCL late last season? Can you name a defensive player for the Vikings not named Jared Allen? Minnesota may be in the Matt Barkley sweepstakes by midseason.
NFC West
Predicted 2012 record
San Francisco 49ers: 13-3*
Seattle Seahawks: 8-8
St Louis Rams 5-11
Arizona Cardinals 4-12
The 49ers surprised the entire NFL last year, finishing 13-3 and a few botched special teams’ plays from reaching the first Super Bowl for the franchise since 1994. QB Alex Smith flirted with Miami before returning to sign with the 49ers. With the additions on offense of WR Randy Moss, Jacobs and Manningham to go with RB Frank Gore and a top 5 defense, head coach Jim Harbaugh is in a “win now” mentality and he should be. The rest of this division has issues. In Seattle it’s a 3 headed QB race with Matt Flynn, Tavaris Jackson and rookie Russell Wilson. You know they say if you have two starting QB’s, you really have none. What does it mean when you have three? In St Louis, there is no QB controversy but a new Head Coach in Jeff Fisher. QB Sam Bradford, the 60 million dollar man, is hoping new rookie WR Brian Quick and Chris Givens can help the offense. Don’t expect much from the Rams in Fisher’s first year, but by next year the Rams will be breathing down the 49er’s throat. Arizona also has a QB controversy with John Skelton and Kevin Kolb battling it out for the privilege of starting for this mediocre team. The defense will keep the Cards in a lot of games, but there is a difference between staying in games and winning them.
NFC South
Predicted 2012 record
Carolina Panthers: 11-5*
Atlanta Falcons: 9-7
New Orleans Saints: 6-10
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 5-11
Ryan Khalil expressed big cajones by having a full page ad published in the Charlotte Observer a few weeks back detailing how the Panthers are going to win the Super Bowl this upcoming February. While I’m not ready to pick them in print yet, I do think the Panther will surprise most of the experts and win the NFC South this year. Why? For starters, the Panthers dodged a bullet and brought back offensive coordinator Rob Chudzinski; keeping Newton in the same offense he had begun to scratch the surface of. They gave Newton yet another offensive toy in FB Mike Tolbert to keep him from those Goal Line dives. The Panthers boast arguably the most talented backfield in the entire league with RBs Deangelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart. And most importantly, the defense is healthy again, led by MLB Jon Beason and Rookie LB Luke Kuechly. If the Panthers can rise from their lowly defensive overall ranking from a year ago and get to around the middle of the pack or better, and the offense stays as a top 5 in the league outfit, the Panthers will win the division. Atlanta brought in CB Asante Samuel to help their most glaring flaw, defending the pass. But RB Michael Turner just turned 30 this year; will he hit the running back wall? Atlanta has to decide if they are a running team or a passing team behind QB Matt Ryan before they will break the ceiling. And by then it may be too late with younger teams in the division catching them. Many are picking New Orleans to win the division anyway without their head coach, Sean Payton. I am not. The Saints went 1-2 last year during Payton’s absence and he was still in the building for the games (just in the box upstairs). How will not being able to talk to the Head Coach for a season affect the Saints? I’m betting if you cut off the head of the snake the body will die. QB Drew Brees is due for a down year….right? The Saints also have to deal with the heart and soul of their defense, LB Jonathan Vilma being suspended for a whole season as well. That seems like too much to overcome for any team. Tampa Bay is in full blown rebuilding mode. I expect them to be similar to Carolina last year, competitive in every game, will lose a few close ones, not quite ready for primetime. But they do have building block in QB Josh Freeman and newly signed WR Vincent Jackson. Watch for the Bucs in 2013.
Playoffs
AFC Division winners
East: Patriots
South: Texans
West: Chiefs
North: Ravens
Wildcards: Raiders, Broncos
The AFC will be a wild scene in the playoffs. Remember the doubt I expressed about the Broncos? Well I have them beating the Chiefs, Patriots on their way to the AFC Championship game against the Houston Texans, who go through Baltimore in the division round to get there. Denver wins 21-17 as Manning out duels Schabb and the Texans. The Broncos make their first Super Bowl appearance since the 1998 season.
NFC Divisional Champs
East: Dallas
South: Carolina
West: 49ers
North: Packers
Wildcards: Detroit, Philadelphia
Any of the teams that make the playoffs in the NFC will have a legit shot to win it all. I’ve got the 49ers defeating Dallas in San Francisco in a divisional round and Carolina beating the Packers at Lambeau Field to set up a San Francisco vs. Carolina NFC Championship game, pitting Alex Smith against Cam Newton…two that got embroiled in an internet controversy earlier in the off-season. Smith said that Newton’s stats were great but he didn’t win games. Newton will win games this year, but not this one. Smith and the 49ers stop the Panthers in an exciting game, 34-31 with San Francisco winning on a last second field goal.
Super Bowl XLVII
San Francisco 49ers vs. Denver Broncos
I just think San Francisco’s defense is going to be too much to handle, although the Denver defense is nothing to sneeze at. Who will make mistakes first, Alex Smith actually goes toe to toe with Manning for most of the game. Much maligned WR Randy Moss makes an appearance with a touchdown and RB Frank Gore scores as well. In the end a field goal will decide this game as well; 49ers win a low scoring but exciting game 17-14.
Let’s get ready for some NFL FOOTBALL!!!!! Till next month kids! Follow SportsCarolina Monthly on Facebook and under @Sportscarolina1 on Twitter!
